BIOB51 – Lecture 5
Methods of Evolutionary Analysis: Scientific Method:
▪ The independent variable is altered and the effect should be looked upon the dependent variable
o Observation test: the two variables are related to one another but one is naturally manipulated
o The strongest tests are made when predictions are opposed of alternative hypothesis
▪ Null hypothesis: one alternative hypothesis.
o Have to make sure a sampling error doesn’t occur o The statistical tests depend on:
▪ Magnitude of difference
▪ Sample size
▪ Amount of variation in data
o The smaller the p-value, there is a significant difference ▪ p < 0.05
Planned experiment:
• The independent variable is manipulated by the researcher Natural experiment:
Methods of Evolutionary Analysis: Scientific Method:
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Observation:
o You see something and want to understand how it works
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Hypothesis:
o An educated guess regarding the system you have a question about
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Predictions:
o If the hypothesis is true, then...
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Test: gather data and compare different groups
▪ The independent variable is altered and the effect should be looked upon the dependent variable
o Observation test: the two variables are related to one another but one is naturally manipulated
o The strongest tests are made when predictions are opposed of alternative hypothesis
▪ Null hypothesis: one alternative hypothesis.
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The groups are the same
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There isn’t an effect of one variable on the other
o Have to make sure a sampling error doesn’t occur o The statistical tests depend on:
▪ Magnitude of difference
▪ Sample size
▪ Amount of variation in data
o The smaller the p-value, there is a significant difference ▪ p < 0.05
Planned experiment:
• The independent variable is manipulated by the researcher Natural experiment:
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The independent variable is manipulated naturally
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The variation in the other variable can be measured
Observational study:
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The measurement of natural variation in proposed X
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Causation cannot be interpreted from this study.Guppies – Observational Studies:
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Live in Trinidad in streams and rivers
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They are a model for evolutionary studies since they are very variable for phenotypic and
life history traits (the patterns of life)
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General hypothesis: selection for larger body size upstream
o Upstream there are predators called Killifish
▪ These eat the guppies when they are small ▪ When guppies are big, they cannot be eaten
o Downstream there are predators called Pike cichlid
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▪ These predators are size independent
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▪ It doesn’t matter how big or small the guppies are, they will be eaten
regardless
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▪ Large body size doesn’t affect predation
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▪ These predators are size independent
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Prediction: upstream guppies will evolve larger adult size
o The prediction was consistent with the results
o However, confounding factors need to be looked at.
▪ Biotic: prey availability
▪ Abiotic: water temperature, pH ▪ Measurement issues: guppy age
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Fishes grow at every stage of life
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Upstream fish are older since they have more time to grow
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Downstream fish are younger since they get eaten before they get
old
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Fishes grow at every stage of life
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Observational study 2:
o Predation affects evolution of maternal reproductive life history o Life history is the pattern of life events
o Predictions:▪ Larger offspring can reach the safe size more quickly • Female guppies upstream▪ More offspring, more are likely to survive • Female guppies in downstreamo Tradeoff: changes in one trait lead to changes in the opposite direction in other traitsPlanned Experiment:-
Alternative hypothesis strengthen the test:
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The confounding factors need to be controlled:
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Sample size is important:
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Live in Trinidad in streams and rivers
BIOB51 – Lecture 6
Natural Experiment 2 (Darwin’s Finches):
▪ Uses its beak to slice into other bird’s necks and then sucks the blood
▪ The vampire finch adapted to this feature because the vegetation was low
in that area, but had an increased amount of other birds • Macroevolutionary patterns arise from microevolutionary processes
o This caused the beak size to decrease
• Another drought occurred in 2003-2004 on Daphne Major.
o The beak size decreased even more than the original population size
o This is because there was a new bird. In 1995, another species was found, which was known as Geospiza magnirostris.
Natural Experiment 2 (Darwin’s Finches):
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Adaptive radiation: when a few groups of organisms underwent evolution to form
different lineages. For example, the finches all had different diets and different types of
beaks, according to what they ate
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Question: why do Galapagos finches have diverse beaks?
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Macroevolutionary explanation: a single lineage of birds went through adaptive
radiation with different lineages evolving to specialize on different types of food
▪ Uses its beak to slice into other bird’s necks and then sucks the blood
▪ The vampire finch adapted to this feature because the vegetation was low
in that area, but had an increased amount of other birds • Macroevolutionary patterns arise from microevolutionary processes
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Hypothesis: natural selection favours birds with beaks that can exploit the
available food (they will be less likely to starve)
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Prediction: there should be a shift in the type of food available, which should
cause a matching shift in the beak characteristics of the surviving/reproducing
birds
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For example, a study was conducted on the Geospiza fortis (medium ground
finch)
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▪ The larger-beaked G. fortis is more efficient at eating larger seeds because
it has a big body size
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▪ The smaller-beaked G. fortis is better at eating smaller seeds
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▪ Natural event: In 1977, a drought occurred on Daphne Major.
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Peter and Rosemary Grant studied all the birds on this island, with
more than 30 years of data
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When there was a lot of rain, small soft seeds were produced
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When there is a drought, large and hard seeds were produced more.
These were produced more in 1977, than the small seeds
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The beak size of G. fortis increased as years passed because of the
drought, from the shift of small seeds to large seeds
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In 1985-85, another event occurred, which was called El Nino.
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Peter and Rosemary Grant studied all the birds on this island, with
more than 30 years of data
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▪ The larger-beaked G. fortis is more efficient at eating larger seeds because
it has a big body size
o This caused the beak size to decrease
• Another drought occurred in 2003-2004 on Daphne Major.
o The beak size decreased even more than the original population size
o This is because there was a new bird. In 1995, another species was found, which was known as Geospiza magnirostris.
▪ This was physically much larger than the G. fortis.
It became a competitor for G. fortis.
▪ G. fortis starts to have small beak size over the years because even the largest bird was smaller than G. magnirostris.
• The overall population of G. fortis decreased throughout all these droughts
• Data Set Results: this data shows:
o Gorillas have a single-male mating system
o Chimps have a multi-male mating system, which is when
the female reproduces with many males. This is described
above.
o One male adaptation to win the fertilization of the women
is the increased amount of ejaculate.
▪ G. fortis starts to have small beak size over the years because even the largest bird was smaller than G. magnirostris.
• The overall population of G. fortis decreased throughout all these droughts
• Data Set Results: this data shows:
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Evolution is dynamic: there is no goal
▪ Populations can change repeatedly
▪ Populations can change in one direction and then back again
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Evolution of traits under selection may lead to correlated evolution in other
traits:
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▪ As beak size increases, the body size increases, and the shape of the beak
becomes more pointed
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▪ This could be due to genetic linkages
Comparative method:
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▪ As beak size increases, the body size increases, and the shape of the beak
becomes more pointed
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Macroevolutionary questions are asking where the origin of major differences among
taxa are
o What are the factors leading to the evolution of some traits
o What are the hypotheses about the origin of adaptations
o What are questions about evolutionary history
o The technique is to compare patters of origin of traits across taxa
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For example,
o Gorilla Gorilla: the testes size is different when compared to a human and other
species of monkeys and primates
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Hypothesis 1: larger testes are present in larger species because larger endocrine glands
are required to maintain adequate testosterone levels in the body
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Prediction: the mass of testes will be proportional to body weight across species
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Data: the testes weight increases with body weight across primates
o However, there are some outliers and variation
▪ Physiology isn’t sufficient enough to explain all the variation
▪ It might be the different mating system that is affecting the testes size
o Gorillas have a single-male mating system
o Chimps have a multi-male mating system, which is when
the female reproduces with many males. This is described
above.
o One male adaptation to win the fertilization of the women
is the increased amount of ejaculate.
▪ More sperm is produced by larger testes
o For chimps with a multi-male mating system, their sperm competition will be high and their testes size will be big
• Result: the multi-male mating system organisms are away from the average (larger than predicted), while the single-male mating system organisms are near the line (smaller than predicted).
o However, the evolutionary history isn’t considered; instead each species is treated as an independent data point
o Hypothetical evolutionary sequence:
▪ The problem is that the hypothetical data is from independent origins only. • To solve it is by looking at the evolutionary history and finding the
independent evolutionary events that replicated the tests of the hypothesis.
o In this way, phylogeny is controlled
▪ Phylogeny: is the evolutionary history of a group of
organisms/taxa
shows evidence of patterns of organisms
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Hypothesis 2: there is an evolutionary response to sperm competition, which indicates
that the evolution of testes size depends on the mating system
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Prediction: larger testes (Y) evolve when females evolve to mate with more than one
male (X)
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Test: we must control for body size
o For chimps with a multi-male mating system, their sperm competition will be high and their testes size will be big
• Result: the multi-male mating system organisms are away from the average (larger than predicted), while the single-male mating system organisms are near the line (smaller than predicted).
o However, the evolutionary history isn’t considered; instead each species is treated as an independent data point
o Hypothetical evolutionary sequence:
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▪ In a hypothetical
situation, there is an ancestral primate with a single-male mating system. An evolutionary event happens, and then there becomes two different mating systems, a single male and a multi-male mating system.
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▪ There are now two taxa;
the single male has small testes and the multi-male has bigger testes
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n=1 (1 evolutionary event)
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X has changed, and Y might change
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n=1 (1 evolutionary event)
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▪ There are then more evolutionary events that aren’t related to the mating
system. They are instead due to inheritance, not due to independent evolutionary events
▪ The problem is that the hypothetical data is from independent origins only. • To solve it is by looking at the evolutionary history and finding the
independent evolutionary events that replicated the tests of the hypothesis.
o In this way, phylogeny is controlled
▪ Phylogeny: is the evolutionary history of a group of
organisms/taxa
▪ Phylogenetic tree/phylogeny (cladogram): is a
diagram that shows patterns and sequences of
evolutionary change among organisms as one
ancestral lineage diversifies
▪ Phylogenies are hypotheses which can be tested • Can be tested through the fossil record;
▪ Phylogenies are hypotheses which can be tested • Can be tested through the fossil record;
• Tools:
o Monophyletic clade (clade): is
an ancestral species and all of its descendants
character
o Monophyletic clade (clade): is
an ancestral species and all of its descendants
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▪ For example, E, F, G, H
is one clade
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▪ Another clade is D, E, F,
G, and H
character
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▪ It is a trait found in the
common ancestor of a clade
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▪ For example, all mammals
have lungs, limbs, and
amniotic eggs
o Apomorphy: derived trait
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▪ It is an evolutionary novelty
(shown after the ancestral
node)
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▪ It is a character that is
present in another species
that wasn’t present in the
ancestor
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▪ It is an evolutionary novelty
(shown after the ancestral
node)
▪ Phylogenetic tree/phylogeny (cladogram): is a
diagram that shows patterns and sequences of
evolutionary change among organisms as one
ancestral lineage diversifies
▪ Phylogenies are hypotheses which can be tested • Can be tested through the fossil record;
▪ Phylogenies are hypotheses which can be tested • Can be tested through the fossil record;
shows evidence of patterns of organisms
▪ It is a defining feature of species
o Synapomorphy: shared derived trait
▪ It is found after the ancestral node and is shared by two or more lineages ▪ It is a defining feature of a clade
▪ It defines the evolutionary relationship among taxa
▪ It is a type of apomorphy
▪ In a synapomorphy:
▪ It is found after the ancestral node and is shared by two or more lineages ▪ It is a defining feature of a clade
▪ It defines the evolutionary relationship among taxa
▪ It is a type of apomorphy
▪ In a synapomorphy:
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Each branching event is defined by one or more synapomorphies
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Every clade is defined by one or more synapomorphies
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As a lineage is traced from the root to the tip, each branch adds
another synapomorphy
For example, the fact that mammals have fur and lactate is a trait that only
mammals have. It differentiates them from other tetrapods
How to construct a phylogeny?
Homoplasy (analogous traits): are similar due to convergent evolution instead of inheritance.
o An example of a fish was Tiktalik who had the beginnings of limbs
▪ This could mean fish came onto land
o Darwin’s reasoning behind this hypothesis is that the lung and swim bladder are
homologous
o Also, fishes appeared in the fossil record earlier than tetrapods
o Furthermore, swim bladders are more common in extant (surviving) fish than
lungs
• In the phylogenetic tree, lungs are more common than swim bladders
o There are two hypothesis:
▪ The swim bladder was gained first (the plesiomorphic state)
• Eventually lost the swim bladder and gained lungs
physiology
How to construct a phylogeny?
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The most closely related species should share the most traits since they have changed less
since that point
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The most distantly related species will share fewer traits
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This is because of descent with modification
Types of traits used:
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Molecular characters: such as DNA sequence
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Morphological characters: such as feathers, etc
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Both of these characters can be combined into making total evidence trees
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When more traits are used, it is easier to identify and remove homoplasies.
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Also, unidentified homoplasies will have less effect on the final phylogeny
How are these traits scored?
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Discrete data: only certain states are possible, such as the presence or absence of wings
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Distance data: is the continuous range of values. For example, the average egg weight,
and the number of sensory hairs
Homologous traits: are when there are similar traits due to inheritance from a common ancestor
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Discrete data: only certain states are possible, such as the presence or absence of wings
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Molecular characters: such as DNA sequence
Homoplasy (analogous traits): are similar due to convergent evolution instead of inheritance.
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This isn’t important for phylogenetic relationships
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For example, some hummingbirds can hover midair for nectar
o This evolved in only some taxa Using Phylogenies:
o An example of a fish was Tiktalik who had the beginnings of limbs
▪ This could mean fish came onto land
o Darwin’s reasoning behind this hypothesis is that the lung and swim bladder are
homologous
o Also, fishes appeared in the fossil record earlier than tetrapods
o Furthermore, swim bladders are more common in extant (surviving) fish than
lungs
• In the phylogenetic tree, lungs are more common than swim bladders
o There are two hypothesis:
▪ The swim bladder was gained first (the plesiomorphic state)
• Eventually lost the swim bladder and gained lungs
▪ The lungs were gained first (the plesiomorphic state)
• Eventually lost the lungs and gained a swim bladder
o Occam’s razor: we look for the simplest explanation with the best pattern
▪ It doesn’t mean it will be the correct one, it just means it might be the
simplest
o Parsimony: a way of deciding among alternative explanations based on
minimizing the total amount of complexity required
What explains the diversity of testes size in primates?
▪ This is based on DNA sequence analysis o Felsentein’s independent contrasts:
▪ Compare traits in sister taxa with different mating systems (change in X) • Sister taxa: are taxa
that share more common traits with each other than other taxa. For example, F and G are sister taxa
▪ They have the same common ancestor • Independent contrasts:
o Each line connects a pair of sister taxa where the mating system (X) has changed o It is relative testes weight because there is a physiological relationship between
the testes size and body size.
▪ If it is negative, the testes weight falls below the expectation from
• Eventually lost the lungs and gained a swim bladder
o Occam’s razor: we look for the simplest explanation with the best pattern
▪ It doesn’t mean it will be the correct one, it just means it might be the
simplest
o Parsimony: a way of deciding among alternative explanations based on
minimizing the total amount of complexity required
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▪ We look at the tree with the fewest proposed evolutionary changes should
be the starting hypothesis
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▪ For example, the tree where lungs evolved first has the fewest
evolutionary changes (it has 5 evolutionary changes)
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▪ This means that lungs evolved before swim bladders
Notes about Phylogeny:
What explains the diversity of testes size in primates?
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Hypothesis 2: evolutionary response to sperm competition
o The evolution of testes size depends on the mating system
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Prediction: larger testes (Y) evolve when females evolve to mate with more than one
male (X)
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Test: it requires identification of natural experiments in the past when a new mating
system evolved in a taxon changed
▪ This is based on DNA sequence analysis o Felsentein’s independent contrasts:
▪ Compare traits in sister taxa with different mating systems (change in X) • Sister taxa: are taxa
that share more common traits with each other than other taxa. For example, F and G are sister taxa
▪ They have the same common ancestor • Independent contrasts:
o Each line connects a pair of sister taxa where the mating system (X) has changed o It is relative testes weight because there is a physiological relationship between
the testes size and body size.
▪ If it is negative, the testes weight falls below the expectation from
▪ If it is positive, the testes weight falls
above the expectation from physiology
o The results indicated that the evolution of mating systems with high sperm competition correlated with the evolution of relatively large testes
▪ P < 0.005
Fossil Record:
o The results indicated that the evolution of mating systems with high sperm competition correlated with the evolution of relatively large testes
▪ P < 0.005
Fossil Record:
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It can be used to test macroevolution questions about the
origin of major differences among taxa
o For example, what was the evolutionary precursor to this trait? How did this trait change over time?
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Technique: is to reconstruct the history of the trait
o Establish the ancestral condition
o Understand transformational sequences
Mathematical Modelling:
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Questions: there are macro or micro-evolutionary questions
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It allows researcher to:
o Test logic of proposed hypotheses
o Identify areas where further study is needed
o Predict evolutionary outcomes given initial assumptions
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All the above methods are falsifiable
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Questions: there are macro or micro-evolutionary questions
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